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What Models Don’t Know

Why Models Can Never Get Things Quite Right Their downfall is the assumption that the future will be like the past. Bloomberg, May 4, 2020 The economy is frozen because of the coronavirus....

10 Wednesday AM Reads

My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • The Stock Market Is Not the Economy (Morningstar) • Too Much Leverage, Too Much Risk Are Weighing Down Hedge Funds (CIO) • The obscure rule that is...

Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Longtime correspondent Paul B. suggested I re-publish three essays that have renewed relevance. This is the second essay, from July 2008. Thank you, Paul, for the suggestion.

I received this timely inquiry from astute reader Paul B.:

I'm interested...

Billionaire Sam Zell Sees Economy Permanently Scarred by Pandemic

``"How soon will anybody get on an airplane? How soon will anybody stay in a hotel? How soon will anybody go to a mall?" he asked. "The fact that these places may be open doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be doing business."

Nothing to...

Big Banks and Fossil Fuel Industry Poised to Get Bailed Out Under Fed's "Main Street" Lending Program

``We've walked down plenty of Main Streets in America: in West Virginia, downstate and upstate New York, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Florida and in ski towns from coast to coast. We've seen plenty of boutique gift shops, family-owned...

MiB: Betting Against Fraud and China

What do you do when you are a Wall Street cynic with a long history of identifying fraud? If you are Jim Chanos, you launch a short-focused hedge fund. Today, Chanos is a famed short seller who...

Sweden vs. Its Neighbors

I am angry. Here we are, in the midst of a global pandemic that simultaneously threatens the lives of countless people while destroying the incomes of millions. There is a lot of confusion — some...

10 Tuesday AM Reads

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • This version of Warren Buffett (Reformed Broker) see also Warren Buffett’s Peek Into the Financial Abyss (Institutional Investor) • Internal Chinese...

The Art of Survival, Taoism and the Warring States

Longtime correspondent Paul B. suggested I re-publish three essays that have renewed relevance. This is the first essay, from June 2008. Thank you, Paul, for the suggestion.

I'm not trying to be difficult, but I can't help cutting against the...

The Coronavirus Depression - How America Locked Itself Into Economic Devastation

``That brings us to now. Will the economy magically "bounce back"? Maybe. But even if it does, it's only going to bounce back to the invisible depression Americans were already in. Yet even that much is unrealistically optimistic. Why? ...''

Negative Interest Rates: Will Donald Trump And The Fed Destroy The U.S. Banking System?

``"We've learned our lesson from Japan and the Europeans; when you go to negative rates you start impairing the banking system. I think [negative interest rates] will be the last tool the Fed pulls out of its tool kit. The Fed right now is...

The Investors First Podcast

I spent some time with Steve Curley and Colby Donovan chatting about, well, everything: with This is Part I of a two-part episode; check back for Part II. This episode features Barry...

No More HELOCs! Major Banks Stop HELOC Originations

The 2nd Financial Crisis Of The 21st Century Begins! Chase And Wells Fargo Stop Originations Of HELOCs.

BBRG: Why Models Can Never Get Things Quite Right

Why Models Can Never Get Things Quite Right Their downfall is the assumption that the future will be like the past. Bloomberg, May 4, 2020 New column out about why new events breaks models....

Transcript: Jim Chanos

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras, on Apple...

10 Monday AM Reads

My back to work morning train reads: • The Great Disconnect: Stocks and Just About Everything Else (Barron’s) see also Stocks Keep Rallying, Despite Lack of Visibility on Economy (Wall Street...

Go Big (little version)

On Thursday, I mentioned my beastly BusinessWeek piece on economic rescues: It’s Time to Go Big. For those of you who don’t want to plow through a 2500 word opus, here is the reader digest...

Why Assets Will Crash

This is how it happens that boats that were once worth tens of thousands of dollars are set adrift by owners who can no longer afford to pay slip fees.

The increasing concentration of the ownership of wealth/assets in the top 10% has an...

Reopening Has Begun. No One Is Sure What Happens NexT

``"I don't think it was really the government shutdown orders that shut down the economy -- I think it was the virus that shut down the economy," Mr. Vavra said. "Saying the economy is now opened is just lip service. The economy's not going to...

As Airbnb income vanishes, overextended homeowners struggle to avoid foreclosure

Smaller players have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars each buying homes for short-term rentals. Jennifer Kelleher-Hazlett of Clawson, Mich., spent about $380,000 to buy two Michigan properties in 2018. She said she and her husband...

10 Sunday Reads

A helpful collection of resources and information for your easy like Sunday morning reads (ugly stuff after the jump): Staying Safe: • 24 Hours at the Epicenter of the Coronavirus Pandemic:...

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